Wasted Votes
The effect they can have on election results
Wasted Votes
In the 2020 NZ General Election, 225,000 votes went to parties that did not win any seats.
So what happens to these votes?
The Sainte Lague Calculation is applied. You can view the Electoral Commission's explanation of the Sainte Lague Formula here: https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/sainte_lague.html. Following is a quote taken from that official government page:
Because the parties not reaching the threshold have been disregarded the percentage share for each of the remaining parties has increased. (Emphasis mine)
What is the effect of this?
In 2020, Labour received an additional 5 seats that gave them a clear majority in parliament.
Here is a great video that shows what happened to those votes that went to unsuccessful parties.
As the successful parties get a bigger share, they obviously gain more seats. The more unsuccessful votes there are, the more seats the successful parties gain.
As there are 120 seats in parliament, 1% of the vote will gain 1.2 seats. Therefore 5% represents 6 seats. As an example, if 5% of total votes cast do not win seats, those 6 seats effectively end up with the parties that do.
And the unsuccessful parties end up with no voice in parliament.
That is why it makes sense to vote for a party that is likely to get 5% of the total vote if you really want change, such as a full and proper inquiry into NZ's Covid Response including vaccine injuries and deaths. That is why it is important to study not only the party policies but also the polls.
Polls & their Accuracy
In this interview, David Farrar, an experienced pollster and researcher, examines not only what happens to unsuccessful votes, but also talks about polls, their usefulness and accuracy.
Since 1996, David Farrar has been studying every poll for every party and the average error tends to be around 1.1%.
David Farrar has never seen a party polling under 3% reach the 5% threshold, and apart from Winston (NZ First), a party polling under 4%.
David Farrar suggests keeping an eye on the polls—not just one poll but a number of the public polls. Then if you want your vote to help change the government, pick the best party for you that is likely to win seats.
It is not easy for minor parties to reach the 5% threshold.
As noted in this previous article, if there are 3,000,000 votes, a party needs to win 150,000 votes to reach the 5% threshold.
In 2020, there was less than 3 million voters and there were only 225,000 people who voted for the minor parties not currently in parliament. Therefore, there were only enough votes for 1 minor party to win seats in parliament. But because all these votes were divided amongst 12 minor parties, none reached the 5% threshold. Consequently, Labour, National, Act, the Greens and the Maori Party got 5,2,1,1,1 more seats respectively.
According to the polls, there is an increase in people supporting the minor parties including NZ First, but the freedom parties are not getting anywhere near the numbers needed.
In the recent public polls, how many voters are voting for the minor parties not currently in power?
NZ First is polling around 5 to 6 % in the latest polls.
All the other minor parties combined are just hitting the 5% mark.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely any of the other minor parties, who take part in the Voted United Polls are going to reach the 5% threshold—they would all need to combine to even have a chance at this point in time. We are now too close to the elections. The use-by date for parties to unite has passed.
Many of these freedom parties were unwilling to UNITE, unwilling to listen to the people they are representing. Freedoms NZ and Democracy Alliance offered an opportunity, but despite their best efforts both options have failed to bring sufficient parties together.
The leaders of the Freedom Parties are wonderful, strong people who are standing up, speaking out and pushing back against those intent on taking away our freedoms. Many of us are and forever will be grateful for all they have done and the sacrifices they have made.
However, they did not unite. Divided as they are, they are highly unlikely to reach the 5% threshold. The latest Verian Poll says it all. For instance, NZ Loyal only got 0.4% and Freedoms NZ 0.5%.
If we do not get some form of representation in parliament, excess deaths and injuries will continue to be swept under the rug.
Guy Hatchard, from the Hatchard Report, has written another great must-read article: The New Zealand Health Debate... Within this article, he exposes how National and Labour are ignoring verifiable facts about excess deaths and more. He says:
Neither Labour, ACT, Greens, nor National are prepared to read the latest studies, take account of the published data, and admit the obvious. So what can we do about it in the upcoming election? Mathematics can help us out.
Guy then goes on to examine a recent Roy Morgan Poll. Based on this poll, he uses mathematics to illustrate the impact unsuccessful votes can have on who governs.
Words of Wisdom, Suggestions and Conclusions from Guy’s Article:
Therefore, a vote for a minor party with little or no chance of attaining the 5% threshold is actually a vote for a National ACT coalition. This will result in the deregulation of biotechnology, precisely the opposite of the hopes of many people currently planning to vote for minor parties.
In contrast, if more people switched their party votes from minor parties to NZ First, there will be a better chance that Winston might secure a wide ranging investigation of Covid policies and supply a moderating influence upon the more extreme policies proposed by ACT and National.
I realize that many people wish to use their vote to make a statement of concern or disgust with the last parliamentary term, but due to the mathematics the net effect will be the opposite. We can vote for our preferred candidate in our electorate, but don’t waste the Party Vote. It will determine the outcome. During the next three years, it might be possible for those aspiring for new political leadership to become more organised and united in their efforts...
If we want any chance of getting a full independent inquiry into the Covid Response, we need to vote for a party that not only stands for such an inquiry, but also has a good chance of winning seats. At this point in time, NZ First is our only option.
It is better to take a chance on NZ First than to have absolutely no chance at all.
Additional Information
The RCR interview with Sandra Goudie (Former National MP and Former Thames Mayor) on wasted votes. And here is the article on Muriel Newman's Website (Breaking Views) referred to in the interview.
Election 2023. Reality Check Radio Political Coverage. Scroll down to ‘Wasted’ or ‘Re-Allocated’ Votes for a good summary.
Electoral Commission: NZ Election Results.
Thank you. This gives me clarity about the effect of voting for a minor party in this NZ election.