NZ 2023 General Election
What can we learn from the Voters United Polls 1, 3, & 4 ?
On October 14th this year, New Zealanders will vote for our next government. Many say this is the most important general election of our lifetime. And it is! Why?
Both Labour & National have failed NZ. For many years now, there has been no improvement in education, healthcare, general living standards and so on…
And now Labour wants to introduce dangerous censorship laws under the guise of protecting us. David Harvey, a retired judge called it out for what it is “... a gross interference with freedom of expression.” See here and here.
Do you want to live in a totalitarian-style society? Apparently all the current politicians do—have you heard any of them speak out against it?
There are a number of minor political parties that promote a far better way forward. However, these parties need to unite or voters need to unite behind one party to ensure success at the next election.
How can we help make this happen? We can join Voters United: “Our principles are the changes we all want to see.” Their polls help us vote strategically.
Let us take a look at the following significant Voters United Polls.
The graphs are from the Voters United Website.
Poll 1
As Democracy NZ (DNZ) has a clear lead, it’s obvious who to vote for. Or is it?
2020 Election—the Past
At the 2020 election, there were 225,000 minor party voters, which is 7.5% of a 3,000,000 voting pool. If scaled to the 2020 election, DNZ, even with 50.59% of the minor party vote (113,000 votes), would not have won any seats in parliament.
DNZ would need to get 150,000 votes to reach the 5% threshold needed to win seats. 113,000 votes represent 2.65% of that.
If you add the undecided and the other small parties (excluding NZ First ), at about 84% DNZ would have got 189,000 votes. Therefore, it would’ve reached 6.3% and won seats in parliament.
2023 Election—the Future
If there are more minor party voters in the next election, what effect will this have?
(225,000 is 7.5% of 3,000,000; 300,000 is 10% of 3,000,000).
Democracy NZ Votes
50.59% of 225,000=113,000 votes
50.59% of 300,000=151,000 votes (5% threshold)
Therefore, based on Poll 1 results, for DNZ to get seats in parliament (even at just over 50% of the minor party votes), there would need to be an increase of 75,000 or more voters, i.e. 300,000 or 10% voting for minor parties.
This illustrates how important it is for parties/voters to unite. Otherwise, we take too big a risk and end up with no seats in parliament and we could have had so many.
There is another major point to consider, do enough of us know about voters united? If not, most of the minor party votes will remain spread out over many minor parties and no seats will be won. We all need to spread the word.
If we are going to vote for the most popular minor party, who do we vote for when there isn't a clear lead or a clear indication that they're going to make the 5% threshold?
Poll 3
There are three main players, Democracy NZ, NZ First, and FreedomsNZ. They're fairly equal. If this trend continues, who do we vote for?
2020 Election—the Past
When the results are scaled to the 2020 election, i.e. to the percentage of the 225,000 votes cast, none of the parties would have got even ½ way to the 150,000 votes needed to reach the 5% threshold. Even when combined with the undecided, they still wouldn't have won any seats.
2023 Election—the Future
Based on Poll 3, if there are more minor party voters, what effect will this have? (Remember in 2020, 225,000, i.e. 7.5% of voters voted for the minor parties.)
To reach the 5% threshold, a party needs to get 150,000 votes (if total votes = 3,000,000 as in 2020).
What if 7.5% of voters voted for minor parties as in 2020.
NZ First at 26% = 58,500 votes
Freedoms NZ at 22% = 49,500 votes
DNZ at 21% = 47,250 votes
What if 10% voted for the minor parties? (300,000 is 10% of 3,000,000)
NZ First at 26% = 78,000 votes
Freedoms at NZ 22% = 66,000 votes
DNZ at 21% = 63,000 votes
What if 20% voted for the minor parties? (600,000 is 20% of 3,000,000)
NZ First at 26% = 156,000
Freedoms NZ at 22% = 132,000
DNZ at 21% = 126,000
Even with a minor party voters pool of 600,000, i.e. an increase of 375,000 more minor party voters than in 2020, only NZ First would have got seats in parliament. How likely is such a huge increase?
How many minor party voters would need to vote for the same party to win seats, i.e. to reach the 150,000 votes (5% threshold)?
If there was 225,000 voters, 66% would need to vote for the same party, i.e. the majority of Democracy NZ, Freedoms NZ and NZ First voters would all have to vote for the same party; otherwise, the threshold would not be reached.
If there was 300,000 voters, 50% would have to vote for one party. Therefore, if all the voters from 2 of the main players voted for the same party, it’d be close.
If there was 600,000 voters, 25% would have to vote for one party. Is that even likely?
Poll 4
There are now 4 main players, NZ Loyal, NZ First, Democracy NZ, Freedoms NZ.
2020 Election—the Past
When the results are scaled to the 2020 election, i.e. to the percentage of the 225,000 votes cast, none of the parties would have got even ½ way to the 150,000 votes needed to reach the 5% threshold. Even when combined with the undecided, they still wouldn't have won any seats.
2023 Election—the Future
Based on Poll 4, if there are more minor party voters, what effect will this have? (Remember in 2020, 225,000, i.e. 7.5% of voters voted for the minor parties.)
To reach the 5% threshold, a party needs to get 150,000 votes.
What if 7.5% of voters voted for minor parties as in 2020?
NZ Loyal at 26% = 58,500 votes
NZ First at 23% = 51,750 votes
DNZ at 18% = 40,500 votes
Freedoms NZ at 14% = 31,500 votes
What if 10% voted for the minor parties? (300,000 is 10% of 3,000,000)
NZ Loyal at 26% = 78,000 votes
NZ First at 23% = 69,000 votes
DNZ at 18% = 54,000 votes
Freedoms NZ at 14% = 42,000 votes
What if 20% voted for the minor parties? (600,000 is 20% of 3,000,000 voters)
NZ Loyal at 26% = 156,000 votes
NZ First at 23% = 138,000 votes
DNZ at 18% = 108,000 votes
Freedoms NZ at 14% = 84,000 votes
Based on Poll 4, only NZ Loyal would have got seats in parliament and that is only if there was the unlikely number of 600,000 minor party voters.
How many minor party voters would need to vote for the same party to win seats, i.e. to reach the 150,000 votes (5% threshold)?
If there were 225,000 voters, NZ Loyal at 26% (58,500) would need to attract 40% (90,000) of the voters from the other minor parties to reach 66%, i.e. 150,000 votes; otherwise, the threshold of 5% would not be reached. In other words, all the votes from DNZ and NZ First.
If there were 300,000 voters, 50% would have to vote for one party. Therefore, at 26%, i.e. 78,000 votes, NZ Loyal would have to attract an additional 24% from the other segments, i.e. 72,000 votes.
If there were 600,000 voters, 25% would have to vote for the same party. Is having 375,000 more minor party voters than in 2020 a long shot?
Some Variables and Conclusion
There are many variable; such as, how much will the minor party vote increase by compared to 2020. However, as NZ First has increased in the latest polls significantly compared to 2020, a reasonable increase in minor party voters is expected. In 2017, there were 277,500 minor party voters who voted for parties not currently in parliament. Of those, 186,706 went to NZ First.
Another variable, all of the minor party voting pool from 2020 (225,000 approx.—does not include those in parliament), was divided amongst parties participating in the Voters United Polls, which is to their advantage as more parties equal more division. The 2023 figures were similarly worked out.
Based on the Voters United Polls, we will not reach the 5% threshold unless most parties or voters unite. The numbers needed are too great. However, we are lucky to have an option that will likely get seats. I will discuss this in the next post.
References and More Information.
A Reality Check Radio interview on Voters United just after it was launched: The Voters United Initiative Explained.
An interesting RCR interviews on censorship: Johnathon Ayling from the Free Speech Union.
2020 and 2017 election results.